News, data and analysis on tokenized assets, market design and digital economic systems.
New York event contract exchange, designated a contract market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020, whose binary contracts pay $1 if the stated outcome occurs; since December 2025 it has issued tokenized versions on Solana.
New York event contract exchange founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, designated a contract market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on 4 November 2020, with affiliate Kalshi Klear LLC registered as a derivatives clearing organization on 29 August 2024. Its contracts are binary and fully collateralised: they trade between 1 and 99 cents and pay $1 if the stated outcome occurs, so the quoted price is readable as a probability and no participant carries counterparty leverage. In December 2025 it began issuing tokenized versions of thousands of its contracts on Solana, routed through the DFlow and Jupiter protocols while the order book stays offchain, and it accepts bitcoin, USDC and SOL deposits; reported lifetime notional volume was $19.6bn at that point, with $5.8bn traded in November 2025 alone.
Developments in which Kalshi is a named party, newest first.
The European supervisor's second risk monitor of the year puts the tokenized equity market at about EUR 1.9bn, almost all of it wrapped claims whose transfer conveys no legal title, and says Polymarket and Kalshi lack the authorisation the EU…
A former Solicitor General, acting for Hyperliquid Policy Center, told the district court in Washington that CME cannot claim competitor injury from an order which enlarged the market rather than dividing it, and that an interest in burdening rivals…
The state's attorney general petitions for certiorari five days after the Ninth Circuit split from the Third, asking whether registering a market with the CFTC exempts what it lists from every state's gambling law.
Moving to dismiss the exchange's suit over Kalshi's bitcoin perpetuals, the Commission quotes CME's own earnings call and its own monthly volume files back at it, and argues that one board of trade has no standing to litigate how a rival's contract…
The 30th Circuit barred KalshiEX from anything connected with sports wagering in the state and set a $500,000 a day penalty for failing to geofence it.
The comment period on the Commission's request about ETFs holding crypto assets, event contracts and perpetual futures closed with issuers asking for confidential draft filings and a 45-day clock, a lead market maker asking that every fund launch…
The Ninth Circuit holds that the Commodity Exchange Act likely does not preempt Nevada's gaming law, contradicting the Third Circuit and leaving the same contract lawful in one part of the country and not another.
The CFTC settles insider trading charges over event contracts on which phrases would appear in presidential speeches, and the trades were found by the exchange's own surveillance rather than by the regulator.
Kalshi submitted two never-expiring futures for the Commission's approval on 18 August rather than certifying them itself: one on a 500-stock US index, one on copper.
The newest federally designated prediction market filed its fifth suit against a state attorney general in eleven days, and this one is in the state where a federal judge refused the CFTC the same relief on 28 July and said the exchanges were the…
The city filed two complaints in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City on 13 August under an ordinance of its own, and the Kalshi case also names Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase, because each takes a fee on every event contract sold through its…
The Commission published the agenda on 13 August for the first meeting of its Innovation Advisory Committee, on 20 August.
A King County judge signed an order on 12 August requiring KalshiEX to stop offering event contracts on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science and mentions in Washington, with geofencing by 2 September and $120,000 a…
A twelve-page advisory issued on 12 August tells designated contract markets what a market-maker or trading incentive programme may contain and how to file one.
The Commission found on 11 August that a state enforcement action and its motion for a restraining order are a major market disturbance, and directed KalshiEX to keep operating.
The flight tracking company discontinued its case on 11 August, the day after filing it and hours after a judge set a restraining order hearing for the 13th.
The flight tracking company filed in Manhattan on 10 August, alleging that Kalshi named it as the primary source agency for cancellation contracts, displayed its trademark on the market pages and settled wagers on data licensed for personal use only.
Staff at the derivatives regulator wrote to every venue listing event contracts to say that displaying them in American plus-minus odds, rather than in cents, is likely to mislead customers about what they are buying and risks breaching the…
A federal judge in Detroit refused to stop Michigan enforcing its sports betting law against Coinbase, finding that sports event contracts are probably not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that, even if they were, the Act does not displace…
From 1 August the Chrome Web Store refuses extensions that move real money on predictive outcomes, closing a distribution channel to venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Google Finance has carried their prices since November 2025.
The state's petition asks a New York court to shut an exchange the CFTC licenses, with remedies one report reckons could pass $36bn, and puts the sharpest question yet to the federal footing of event contracts.
The regulator has ordered the former congressman to give up his profits and pay a penalty for trading a Kalshi contract on whether he would attend the State of the Union, an outcome he alone controlled.
The exchange will pay doctoral researchers to study its own market category, with a Carnegie Mellon economist as scientific director and independence rules of its own design.
A preliminary injunction in the District of Minnesota halts Senate File 3432, finding the Commodity Exchange Act probably preempts a state law that criminalises prediction market platforms.
The league wants outright bans on contracts over officiating and player performance rather than case-by-case review, a 21-and-over floor, and prohibited-bettor lists—positions that put it at odds with both the Commission's draft and the leagues that…
The Division of Market Oversight says template filings that bundle many contract variations into a single certification fall short of what the rules require.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved a notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets, published in the Federal Register on 12 June 2026, setting out when event contracts on enumerated activities are contrary to the public interest.
Intercontinental Exchange announced an additional $600m investment in Polymarket on 27 March 2026, adding to its earlier stake in the prediction-market platform.
The supervisor's second risk monitor of 2026 puts tokenized equities at about EUR 1.9bn, nearly all of it wrapped claims that convey no legal title, and warns that multiple representations of one share fragment liquidity. It states that the largest prediction market platforms hold no EU authorisation and questions their partial geo-blocks.
Elizabeth Prelogar, Solicitor General from 2021 to 2025, filed for Hyperliquid Policy Center in Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. v. Selig, arguing that the CFTC order enlarged the market rather than dividing it, so competitor standing does not follow, and that CME's interest in reclassifying perpetuals as swaps is outside the zone of interests. Leave was granted the same day.
New Jersey's attorney general and its gaming enforcement director filed a petition for certiorari on 2 September 2026 in Flaherty and Davenport v. KalshiEX, asking whether Dodd-Frank preempted states from regulating sports bets offered on CFTC-registered markets. The office calls it the first such petition, and it follows opposite rulings in the Third and Ninth Circuits.
The Commission and its chairman moved on 2 September 2026 to dismiss CME Group's challenge to the approval of Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual futures, arguing the exchange has no standing because it is free to list the same contract and has told investors its customers are not asking for one. Cross-motions for summary judgment are proposed for 20 November.
The Circuit Court for the 30th Judicial Circuit granted a preliminary injunction on 1 September 2026 barring KalshiEX from any activity connected with sports wagering in Michigan, requiring a state-licensed geolocation provider and setting a $500,000 daily penalty for failing to meet it. Kalshi had told the department it would seek dissolution if competitors were not pursued.
Comments on File No. S7-2026-24 were due on 31 August 2026. Issuers asked for confidential draft registrations and a 45-day staff clock; Charles Schwab opposed a fully confidential process and Jane Street asked that every fund launch with at least two authorised participants. Kalshi asked that registered funds be permitted to hold event contracts.
In KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad, No. 25-7516, decided 28 August 2026, a Ninth Circuit panel affirmed dissolution of Kalshi's injunction against Nevada's gaming regulators, holding the Commodity Exchange Act likely does not preempt state gaming law as applied to its sports event contracts. Nelson wrote, Bade joined, Lee concurred. It contradicts an April Third Circuit decision, creating a split.
The CFTC announced on 28 August 2026 an order settling charges against Gabriel Perez for misappropriating nonpublic information from his White House employment to trade event contracts on words the President would use in speeches. He must disgorge $107,539.02 and pay a $65,000 penalty, discounted for cooperation, with a three-year trading ban. The release thanks KalshiEX for its assistance.
Kalshi submitted perpetual futures on the MerQube US Large Cap Index and on copper for Commission review and approval under regulation 40.3(a) on 18 August 2026, rather than self-certifying them. The copper contract references the Pyth Network XCU/USD feed, and the filing tells the regulator that the network's staking and slashing safeguard is not currently operative.
Ludlow Exchange, trading as Novig, filed a 45 page complaint in the Western District of Wisconsin on 14 August 2026 seeking a declaration that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state's gambling statutes. It is its fifth suit against a state officer since 4 August, and it follows a federal court in the same state refusing the CFTC the same relief on 28 July.
The city filed two complaints in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City on 13 August 2026 under its Consumer Protection Ordinance. The Kalshi case also names Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase, pleading that each takes a fee alongside Kalshi on every event contract bought through its prediction markets hub, and seeks penalties, an injunction, disgorgement and restitution.
The agenda of 13 August 2026 sets three sessions for 20 August, on crypto regulation, artificial intelligence and prediction markets. The prediction markets session lists the respective roles of federal and state authorities and recent state litigation among its potential topics. It names three officials, no members and no panellists.
CFTC Letter 26-23 of 12 August 2026 sets out what a designated contract market may put in a market-maker or trading incentive programme and how to certify it. Unlimited rebates, guaranteed profits, secret discount codes, chance-based prizes and selectively faster market data are named as concerns, and existing programmes are to be reviewed by 14 September.
A King County Superior Court judge signed an amended preliminary injunction on 12 August 2026 requiring KalshiEX to stop offering event contracts on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science and mentions in Washington, with geofencing through GeoComply by 2 September and $120,000 a day thereafter. It holds the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling law.
The Commission found on 11 August 2026 that New York's enforcement action and its motion for a temporary restraining order are a major market disturbance under section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act, and directed KalshiEX to continue performing its functions as an exchange under the Act's core principles. No court had ruled on the restraining order.
FlightAware filed a notice of voluntary dismissal without prejudice against all four Kalshi defendants on 11 August 2026, hours after Judge Arun Subramanian signed an order to show cause setting a temporary restraining order hearing for 13 August. No reason is given and no answer had been filed. Kalshi's self-certification still names FlightAware as the primary source agency.
FlightAware filed in the Southern District of New York on 10 August 2026, alleging that Kalshi named it as the primary source agency for flight cancellation contracts, displayed its registered mark on the market pages and settled positions using data licensed for personal use only. Six counts are pleaded and a temporary restraining order is sought.
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight and Market Participants Division wrote to regulated entities on 7 August 2026 to say that displaying event contracts in American plus-minus odds rather than in cents is likely to mislead participants about the nature of the transaction and risks breaching the prohibition on manipulative or deceptive devices. Receipt was to be confirmed by 31 August.
Judge Shalina D. Kumar of the US District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan denied Coinbase Financial Markets a preliminary injunction on 6 August 2026, holding that sports event contracts are probably not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the Act preempts Michigan's gambling laws neither expressly nor by implication. The Gaming Control Board was dismissed on Eleventh Amendment grounds.
Google's revised Chrome Web Store Developer Program policies came into force on 1 August 2026, the Regulated Goods and Services section stating that extensions facilitating or enabling real money transactions on predictive outcomes are not allowed. The change was published on 1 July. It names no venue and reaches extensions rather than the markets themselves; no removal has been reported.
Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James announced on 31 July 2026 that New York had petitioned the Supreme Court of the State of New York, New York County, against KalshiEX LLC, alleging that its sports event contracts amount to an unlicensed gambling business under state law: wagers on outcomes outside the bettor's control without a Gaming Commission licence, users admitted from the age of 18 against a state minimum of 21, and none of the tax obligations licensed operators carry. The petition seeks an injunction, forfeiture of gains, treble damages, restitution and civil penalties.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced an order on 31 July 2026 against the former US representative George Santos for manipulative trading of a Kalshi event contract on whether he would attend the February 2026 State of the Union address. Axios reports a civil fine of $17,500, the surrender of $17,569.98 in profits and a three-year trading ban; the reports differ on the ban's scope.
Judge Katherine Menendez of the US District Court for the District of Minnesota granted preliminary injunctions on 27 July 2026 against Senate File 3432, which would have criminalised operating a prediction market platform in the state from August. The court found the plaintiffs, Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC, likely to succeed on their claim that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts the statute. The injunction holds until the merits are decided.
The National Football League filed a comment letter on 27 July 2026 on the CFTC's proposed public interest determinations rule, saying the draft falls significantly short and asking the Commission to prohibit outright the categories it considers manipulable, including contracts on officiating, individual player performance and events knowable in advance, rather than review them case by case. It also asked for a minimum age of 21 and league-specific prohibited-bettor lists.
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory on 24 July 2026 cautioning designated contract markets against template certifications that bundle many event contract variations into a single filing, saying such submissions limit its ability to judge whether the information required under Regulation 40.2 has been supplied, and setting out when closely related contracts may instead take class treatment.
A divided panel of the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit affirmed a preliminary injunction in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, holding that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts New Jersey's gaming laws as applied to sports event contracts traded on a CFTC-designated contract market, on both field and conflict preemption grounds. Judge Roth dissented, arguing that the presumption against preemption applies with particular force to gambling and that the two regimes can be complied with simultaneously.
What issued, what settled, what the supervisors changed, with the numbers behind it and a note on what the numbers do not show. One email, Thursday mornings.
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