News, data and analysis on tokenized assets, market design and digital economic systems.
Markets that price events, what their prices can and cannot be read as, and their regulatory position.
The state's attorney general petitions for certiorari five days after the Ninth Circuit split from the Third, asking whether registering a market with the CFTC exempts what it lists from every state's gambling law.
The Ninth Circuit holds that the Commodity Exchange Act likely does not preempt Nevada's gaming law, contradicting the Third Circuit and leaving the same contract lawful in one part of the country and not another.
The CFTC settles insider trading charges over event contracts on which phrases would appear in presidential speeches, and the trades were found by the exchange's own surveillance rather than by the regulator.
The newest federally designated prediction market filed its fifth suit against a state attorney general in eleven days, and this one is in the state where a federal judge refused the CFTC the same relief on 28 July and said the exchanges were the…
The city filed two complaints in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City on 13 August under an ordinance of its own, and the Kalshi case also names Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase, because each takes a fee on every event contract sold through its…
The Commission published the agenda on 13 August for the first meeting of its Innovation Advisory Committee, on 20 August.
A King County judge signed an order on 12 August requiring KalshiEX to stop offering event contracts on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science and mentions in Washington, with geofencing by 2 September and $120,000 a…
A twelve-page advisory issued on 12 August tells designated contract markets what a market-maker or trading incentive programme may contain and how to file one.
The Commission found on 11 August that a state enforcement action and its motion for a restraining order are a major market disturbance, and directed KalshiEX to keep operating.
The flight tracking company discontinued its case on 11 August, the day after filing it and hours after a judge set a restraining order hearing for the 13th.
The flight tracking company filed in Manhattan on 10 August, alleging that Kalshi named it as the primary source agency for cancellation contracts, displayed its trademark on the market pages and settled wagers on data licensed for personal use only.
Staff at the derivatives regulator wrote to every venue listing event contracts to say that displaying them in American plus-minus odds, rather than in cents, is likely to mislead customers about what they are buying and risks breaching the…
A federal judge in Detroit refused to stop Michigan enforcing its sports betting law against Coinbase, finding that sports event contracts are probably not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that, even if they were, the Act does not displace…
From 1 August the Chrome Web Store refuses extensions that move real money on predictive outcomes, closing a distribution channel to venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Google Finance has carried their prices since November 2025.
The state's petition asks a New York court to shut an exchange the CFTC licenses, with remedies one report reckons could pass $36bn, and puts the sharpest question yet to the federal footing of event contracts.
The regulator has ordered the former congressman to give up his profits and pay a penalty for trading a Kalshi contract on whether he would attend the State of the Union, an outcome he alone controlled.
The exchange will pay doctoral researchers to study its own market category, with a Carnegie Mellon economist as scientific director and independence rules of its own design.
A preliminary injunction in the District of Minnesota halts Senate File 3432, finding the Commodity Exchange Act probably preempts a state law that criminalises prediction market platforms.
The league wants outright bans on contracts over officiating and player performance rather than case-by-case review, a 21-and-over floor, and prohibited-bettor lists—positions that put it at odds with both the Commission's draft and the leagues that…
The Division of Market Oversight says template filings that bundle many contract variations into a single certification fall short of what the rules require.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved a notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets, published in the Federal Register on 12 June 2026, setting out when event contracts on enumerated activities are contrary to the public interest.
Intercontinental Exchange announced an additional $600m investment in Polymarket on 27 March 2026, adding to its earlier stake in the prediction-market platform.
What issued, what settled, what the supervisors changed, with the numbers behind it and a note on what the numbers do not show. One email, Thursday mornings.
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