News, data and analysis on tokenized assets, market design and digital economic systems.
Prediction market whose route back into the United States was bought rather than granted, through a $112m acquisition that gave it a designated contract market; contract prices on future events are readable as implied probabilities.
Prediction market founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, on which users trade contracts on the outcome of future events against each other rather than against the house, so contract prices are readable as implied probabilities. Its route back into the United States was bought rather than granted: it acquired QCX, LLC and QC Clearing LLC for $112m, closing on 21 July 2025, and now runs Polymarket US as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission designated contract market with an affiliated clearing organisation, after a January 2022 CFTC order fined it $1.4m for operating an unregistered swap execution facility. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, said on 7 October 2025 it would invest up to $2bn at a pre-money valuation of about $8bn and become a global distributor of Polymarket's event data to its own subscribers. Users placed roughly $6bn of predictions in the first half of 2025, which makes the platform a price source for event risk that has no equivalent in listed derivatives.
Developments in which Polymarket is a named party, newest first.
The city filed two complaints in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City on 13 August under an ordinance of its own, and the Kalshi case also names Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase, because each takes a fee on every event contract sold through its…
The Commission published the agenda on 13 August for the first meeting of its Innovation Advisory Committee, on 20 August.
A twelve-page advisory issued on 12 August tells designated contract markets what a market-maker or trading incentive programme may contain and how to file one.
The Commission found on 11 August that a state enforcement action and its motion for a restraining order are a major market disturbance, and directed KalshiEX to keep operating.
The flight tracking company filed in Manhattan on 10 August, alleging that Kalshi named it as the primary source agency for cancellation contracts, displayed its trademark on the market pages and settled wagers on data licensed for personal use only.
Staff at the derivatives regulator wrote to every venue listing event contracts to say that displaying them in American plus-minus odds, rather than in cents, is likely to mislead customers about what they are buying and risks breaching the…
From 1 August the Chrome Web Store refuses extensions that move real money on predictive outcomes, closing a distribution channel to venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Google Finance has carried their prices since November 2025.
A principles-based rewrite of Parts 37, 38 and 39 would police affiliations between exchanges, clearers and trading firms—the integrated structure crypto platforms made standard in derivatives markets.
The exchange will pay doctoral researchers to study its own market category, with a Carnegie Mellon economist as scientific director and independence rules of its own design.
A preliminary injunction in the District of Minnesota halts Senate File 3432, finding the Commodity Exchange Act probably preempts a state law that criminalises prediction market platforms.
The league wants outright bans on contracts over officiating and player performance rather than case-by-case review, a 21-and-over floor, and prohibited-bettor lists—positions that put it at odds with both the Commission's draft and the leagues that…
The Division of Market Oversight says template filings that bundle many contract variations into a single certification fall short of what the rules require.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved a notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets, published in the Federal Register on 12 June 2026, setting out when event contracts on enumerated activities are contrary to the public interest.
Intercontinental Exchange announced an additional $600m investment in Polymarket on 27 March 2026, adding to its earlier stake in the prediction-market platform.
The city filed two complaints in the Circuit Court for Baltimore City on 13 August 2026 under its Consumer Protection Ordinance. The Kalshi case also names Robinhood, Webull and Coinbase, pleading that each takes a fee alongside Kalshi on every event contract bought through its prediction markets hub, and seeks penalties, an injunction, disgorgement and restitution.
The agenda of 13 August 2026 sets three sessions for 20 August, on crypto regulation, artificial intelligence and prediction markets. The prediction markets session lists the respective roles of federal and state authorities and recent state litigation among its potential topics. It names three officials, no members and no panellists.
CFTC Letter 26-23 of 12 August 2026 sets out what a designated contract market may put in a market-maker or trading incentive programme and how to certify it. Unlimited rebates, guaranteed profits, secret discount codes, chance-based prizes and selectively faster market data are named as concerns, and existing programmes are to be reviewed by 14 September.
The Commission found on 11 August 2026 that New York's enforcement action and its motion for a temporary restraining order are a major market disturbance under section 8a(9) of the Commodity Exchange Act, and directed KalshiEX to continue performing its functions as an exchange under the Act's core principles. No court had ruled on the restraining order.
FlightAware filed in the Southern District of New York on 10 August 2026, alleging that Kalshi named it as the primary source agency for flight cancellation contracts, displayed its registered mark on the market pages and settled positions using data licensed for personal use only. Six counts are pleaded and a temporary restraining order is sought.
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight and Market Participants Division wrote to regulated entities on 7 August 2026 to say that displaying event contracts in American plus-minus odds rather than in cents is likely to mislead participants about the nature of the transaction and risks breaching the prohibition on manipulative or deceptive devices. Receipt was to be confirmed by 31 August.
Google's revised Chrome Web Store Developer Program policies came into force on 1 August 2026, the Regulated Goods and Services section stating that extensions facilitating or enabling real money transactions on predictive outcomes are not allowed. The change was published on 1 July. It names no venue and reaches extensions rather than the markets themselves; no removal has been reported.
Polymarket announced the Polymarket Institute on 29 July 2026, a research arm to fund academic work on prediction markets. Kai Brusch, the company's head of data, is managing director and Brian Jabarian of Carnegie Mellon University is scientific director in what Fortune reports is an unpaid role. Fortune reports an inaugural cohort of twelve doctoral fellows on one-off grants of $10,000, applications opening on 18 August, and wider public access to the exchange's market data through its APIs. The release itself gives no funding figures.
Judge Katherine Menendez of the US District Court for the District of Minnesota granted preliminary injunctions on 27 July 2026 against Senate File 3432, which would have criminalised operating a prediction market platform in the state from August. The court found the plaintiffs, Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC, likely to succeed on their claim that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts the statute. The injunction holds until the merits are decided.
The National Football League filed a comment letter on 27 July 2026 on the CFTC's proposed public interest determinations rule, saying the draft falls significantly short and asking the Commission to prohibit outright the categories it considers manipulable, including contracts on officiating, individual player performance and events knowable in advance, rather than review them case by case. It also asked for a minimum age of 21 and league-specific prohibited-bettor lists.
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory on 24 July 2026 cautioning designated contract markets against template certifications that bundle many event contract variations into a single filing, saying such submissions limit its ability to judge whether the information required under Regulation 40.2 has been supplied, and setting out when closely related contracts may instead take class treatment.
Intercontinental Exchange agreed to invest up to $2bn in cash in Polymarket at a pre-investment valuation of about $8bn, and to distribute the prediction market's event data to institutional customers. The two companies said they also planned to work together on tokenisation.
What issued, what settled, what the supervisors changed, with the numbers behind it and a note on what the numbers do not show. One email, Thursday mornings.
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